The interesting thing about the IDF (Intel’s Developer Forum) is that it exists 2 years in the future.
The reason for this is that it is focused on software and hardware developers who need long lead times to create new hardware and get them to market on top of the new technology that Intel is developing. Virtually all of Intel’s partners are here… but finding the Apple guys is a challenge, because of how secretive they are with regard to what portions of the Intel platform they will use in 2 years.
As you would expect at a technical conference, there were so many codenames used that at times entire sentences were almost unintelligible. We’ll leave the codenames to the real propeller-heads though, and talk a bit about what you’ll likely see in the market in two years. Important to keep in mind: Intel supports Windows, Linux, and the MacOS now, so what the company is planning will impact all three groups of desktop users. (I’m not going to talk about servers.)
Desktop
Desktop products are in sharp decline, with most shoppers increasingly preferring laptop computers. Even so, hardware is going to look a lot more advanced in terms of performance on the desktop, because desktops don’t have the size and power limitations (for the most part) that laptops enjoy.
While initially this simply means more cores (basically more microprocessors) in a single system, eventually this will mean a unique system on a chip architecture which dynamically combines the CPU (Central Processing Unit) and the GPU (Graphics Processing Unit) into a single part. This part could reconfigure itself based on what you need to do.
For instance, if you want to play a game, the processor would configure itself so that graphics were optimized for that game. Similarly, if you wanted to transcode a TV show so you could watch it on your iPod or cell phone, it would reconfigure itself for that function, which should give you an overall performance boost far beyond what you would get from a more standard processor.
Seen as Intel’s next-generation response to both IBM’s Cell processor and AMD’s future Fusion offering, this really makes it difficult to see much of a future for standalone GPUs if Intel can make the project work. The venture may not be as hard as it initially seems, however, as the cores are basically modified Intel cores and not something completely unique like the IBM Cell processor. In fact, the concept appears to address much of what was learned from the Cell, meaning it should be vastly easier to create and manufacture. But the first running prototype isn’t due until this time next year and, between now and then, anything can happen.
One thing that was also showcased was a desktop PC running Intel’s new quad core part that systematically beat the world record for a long series of benchmarks on-stage. (Of course the company had to cool it to 160 degrees below zero using three small industrial grade air-conditioning systems linked in series to accomplish this feat.) Suffice it to say, it was fun to see them do this, but I doubt many of us will do that at home, and besides, the power requirements were pretty significant. (Worth noting: The cooling plant was also about twice the size of the largest tower case you’ve ever seen).
On the other side of the scale, mobile technology is making it into the desktop lines as well, which means desktops are already becoming much more power efficient. Given that I’ve seen power projections for servers that indicate the amount of electricity they can consume actually exceeds expenditure-wise their purchase cost every single year, I’m thinking this power savings will increasingly concern most of us. This is because, while watching our power meter spin like a top is fun, a lot of that fun goes away when the power bill shows up at the end of the month.
I’m also imagining it likely that if ultra-mobile PCs (and we’ll get to those towards the end) take off, that many of us may go back to desktop PCs in the home and have UMPCs for the road. We’ll see.
Laptops
As you would expect, systems will soon get thinner, gain significantly more battery life and boast brighter, more attractive screens. In addition, they will also pick up WiMax capability, which is the operational replacement for Wi-Fi. The range for WiMax implies, in cities where it is supported, that there will be very few places where you won’t have access to inexpensive high-speed wireless connections. With it, Wi-Fi gets much faster, which suggests that wireless high-definition video will soon be possible on these next-generation laptops.
This is good, because these laptops will of course feature integrated high-definition media support. While Intel previously was focused on just supporting HD DVD, they now plan to support any available HD format, including Blu Ray, and these systems will be media powerhouses compared to what we have today.
Displays will also get a lot better. Not only will they be more power efficient, they will additionally be brighter and many will be outdoor-viewable. This will help support what will likely be a massive increase in battery life, making notebooks that will go over 6 hours without the need for a recharge more the norm than the exception they are today. Another reason for this is that the processor will be able to almost completely shut down any cores not in use, and that will allow for a much higher level of power savings when doing things like watching movies or listening to music. (Which, generally, shouldn’t require the use of both cores…)
Laptops will seem vastly faster, as this will be the second generation for the product Intel calls Turbo Memory, and very few systems use the first generation today (so most have yet to experience it). Significantly cheaper than a solid state drive, this feature provides many of the same benefits in terms of lower power consumption as well as vastly faster boot and application load times.
Notebooks will additionally get a lot thinner, and it would seem that we are anticipating a time when a large percentage of them will not have optical drives. Even though Intel didn’t say this, I would also venture that we can expect a growing number to come with built-in flash drives, which will further increase speed, lower battery life and create even slimmer, more desirable laptop products.
What’s more, in terms of security, these products will further have vastly more of it baked into the hardware directly. From encrypted drives to more advanced fingerprint readers for biometric-based access, for many of us, just a few years out, data theft that results from the physical pilfering of notebook PCs will be something that is vastly less common than it is today.
UMPC
Going even smaller, we have the ultra-mobile PC (UMPC) class of computer, with many speculating that this will become the platform for future versions of the iPhone and iPod Touch. Providing fewer compromises, longer battery life, richer multimedia features and a vastly better browsing experience, these products may replace laptops for many, if not most, of us in the months that follow.
What I think is interesting about this class of PC is that most thought it was a pipe dream before the iPhone was released (which fits the definition of a UMPC), and now folks are really starting to get excited about the potential. It just goes to show that you need both a compelling product and some powerful marketing to bring out a category-changing product, and Apple demonstrated, once again, they are one of the very few that has this capability earlier this year.
The UMPC will still come in two versions, but in two years, they’ll drop down into the iPhone size and price range, which is why they likely will be compelling (particularly if Apple adopts this technology). The first product is basically a very small laptop running a full OS and set of applications. The second is more like the iPhone – one that’s focused on media consumption, includes a browser, boasts maybe some PDA and email functionality, and probably runs an embedded OS. (In other words, will do a few things really well…)
In short, I’m pretty excited about this stuff, and you should begin seeing some of the initial really cool products in this category towards the end of next year.
Wrapping Up
Intel is working like a machine this year; products are showing up on time and appear to be meeting expectations. The changes they are making for laptops and UMPCs should result in a number of very aggressive designs and the performance that’s coming out of the desktop group, coupled with power savings, should make these products very interesting when they show up.
Given the wireless connectivity offered in most of these products, it’s clear that Intel believes (and I concur) that an increasing amount of stuff we play with on computers will come from the web and not from optical disks or hard drives (except as a cache). One other thing they mentioned was how a product like Second Life (which they compared to the old AOL) will eventually evolve into the 3D web.
As the market leader for the segment, Intel needs to show leadership and, in my opinion, they did a reasonable job of doing that this year. We’re seeing a stronger Intel as of late… and one that will increasingly be creating an environment for some really interesting things we’ll eventually be able to buy.
The only problem for me is as follows: I always want this stuff long before I can actually buy it. But the future, according to Intel, looks bright, vastly more powerful, a lot more entertaining ,much more power efficient and just plain fun. In short, it’s going to be a long two years.
